Exclusive: Prior to Iran attacks, CIA assessed Khamenei would be replaced by hardline IRGC elements if killed, sources say
The CIA reportedly assessed that if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were killed in any U.S. or Israeli operation, his succession would likely be taken by hardline IRGC figures rather than a more moderate leadership cadre. The assessment was shared by two sources briefed on the intelligence in the lead-up to the planned attacks.
The information suggests concerns among U.S. officials that a cratered succession could harden Iran’s stance and potentially escalate regional tensions, even after the removal of the top leader. The potential replacement by IRGC hardliners could influence Iran’s internal dynamics and its external policy.
The report underscores the complexities of leadership transitions in Iran and the potential for unpredictable shifts in the country’s political and security posture following the targeted strike.